Quantifying the Tungsten Supply Shock: A Data-Driven Analysis of China's Export Controls and Their Global Industrial Impact
Abstract— This paper compiles and analyzes the quantitative evidence surrounding the 2024–2026 tungsten supply crisis triggered by the People's Republic of China's export controls on dual-use critical minerals. We aggregate customs data, market price assessments, and corporate disclosures to demonstrate that China's share of global mine production (≈83%) and its dominance of downstream chemical processing have been converted into an operational geopolitical instrument. Ammonium paratungstate (APT) shipments from China to Japan collapsed from 688 t in 2024 to 158 t in 2025 (−77%) and have remained at zero since January 2026 [1]. The resulting price shock—intermediate products more than tripling, industrial tool prices rising above 60%, and tungsten hexafluoride (WF₆) surging up to five-fold—now propagates through semiconductor, automotive, and defense supply chains [2]. We further show that the crisis has escalated to head-of-state diplomacy, with artificial intelligenc...